If you were unaware that CPI came in higher than expected today, most of the world envies you. Nearly everyone was subscribing to the narrative that it would come in LOWER than expected because gas prices have come down from unaffordable to slightly less unaffordable.
The masses were disappointed, caught off guard, and the we know this because the markets had one their worst days in history. The “Fed pivot” is now delayed but still largely expected it seems. That’s dangerous and will keep things messy for longer.
An acquaintance friend guy I know that owns a house near one of my houses and also does AirBnb —let’s call him a friend — called me today to complain about the incompetence of his loan officer at Rocket Mortgage. My FRIEND is pulling a HELOC so he can use it to fund the purchase of a rental property and the loan officer is dropping the ball claiming DTI issues.
I digress.
Two interesting tidbits… the rate on his HELOC is 9.5% — WOWZA!
That was literally the word out of my mouth. He simply said, “Yeah… that’s where the market is at though”.
I think maybe he was talking about credit card balance interest rates (he wasn’t) but I didn’t ask.
His new 30-year rate is supposedly just 5.25% which seems low to me in this environment and about 50 basis points lower than I paid a couple months ago.
But the other interesting thing he mentioned was that Quicken Loans (owners of Rocket) have a 3-year rate guarantee. If rates drop below your interest rate in the next 3 years they’ll give you the lower rate at no cost to you, the borrower.
Again, I think I said “WOW!” and my friend replied with, “Yeah because you know rates will be dropping before that”. I told him I wasn’t so sure.
Beyond being curious about how that is all finagled behind the scenes I found it fascinating for a couple reasons.
For starters, Rocket is now essentially offering incentives for new loans. Make no mistake, this is a perk/incentive/bribe to drum up more interest for folks that are on the fence. They’re trying to drum up demand. You didn’t see these sorts of incentives six months ago.
Beyond that, I wonder if Quicken Loans believes rates will stay elevated for longer than everyone expects.
Think about it. If rates were to go up another 1-2% over the course of the next 12 months, plateau, and then start coming down, we could easily be outside the 3-year window with rates never hitting today’s levels. In that scenario Rocket offered an incentive they never had to make good on.
I assure you this incentive wasn’t made off-the-cuff. There was likely a great deal of analysis, revenue projections, etc. that went into it. A guarantee is never put in place in an effort to cost the guarantor money.
Maybe I’m overanalyzing it but I do believe my friend has a lessor chance of being right than wrong in his assumption that rates will be lower in 3 years.