The last time I wrote about inflation was back in August 2021. Lumber had puked from ~$1,700 down to ~$470 only to later rally back to the $1,300’s by January and then fell again into the $500’s where we find ourselves today.
Now it’s oil’s turn. And if you didn’t know that, well, I don’t know how you can miss the barrage of memes thrown in your face all across social media.
And rates, of course… rates are on a tear. Here’s a look at the US 10-year treasury note:
Yes, we’ve seen these levels before. We were here in 2013 and 2018 in fact. But it doesn’t feel like this move is over and that has me thinking a lot about what’s to come.
When it comes to growth stocks and crypto I think we see continued pain followed by grueling sideways action. I doubt crypto sees new all-time highs for 18 – 24 months. It will be painful for many.
I’m not smart enough to know what it means for housing. Supply is still extremely low and, while demand is there, buyers seem to be picky, favoring fully renovated houses over their dated peers. Can you blame them? Tradespeople are in shorter supply than houses. Trying to find, vet, and schedule a good one is near impossible.
And if interest rates keep ripping higher you’d think it would decrease people’s willingness to move. It’s hard giving up that 3% fixed rate for 5%+ right now.
At the same time people are tired of living in fear. We did that plenty during COVID. And I get the vibe that there’s a feeling of “Damn the torpedoes!!” and people are just going to do what they want because the memory of not being able to is still extremely fresh.
Maybe that’s the real danger.