The Bear Market is Over, They Said

I have a lot going on in the next 24 hours but I wanted to get this out, even if rushed.

I’m being told the crypto bear market is over.

This is from a newsletter JC Parets, a “traditional” finance guy I follow, sends out:

And here’s Bankless, another newsletter (crypto focused) I sometimes read:

They headline tries to stay impartial but the meat does not.

These are just a sampling of the newsletters and tweets I’m seeing that are, in my opinion, overly optimistic about the short to mid-term outlook for crypto.

For starters I find it strange people are now talking about the crypto bear market. For months I haven’t been able to get anyone to even acknowledge we’ve been in one. Now they’re acknowledging it by declaring it’s over?

Strange.

And then I look at the daily Bitcoin chart:

This does not strike me as bullish.

To be clear, it does not strike me as bearish either.

It strikes me right in the middle because that’s what it is. We’re in the middle of a big range.

But it seems people are eager for it to be over. People seem desperate for a bull market.

That makes me skeptical.

Hope They Laugh at You

Have you ever been laughed out of a room metaphorically or literally?

I have.

Most people hate it. They tend to feel sheepish, angry, embarrassed, foolish… the list goes on.

But worse, they tend to stop exploring the thing or idea that was laughed at, dismissed, or told was a bad idea.

I hope to be laughed at. In fact, the more people laugh at me or tell me I’m wrong the stronger my conviction becomes. Because the majority is almost always wrong.

In fact I’ve found I become uncomfortable now when too many people agree with me, and I start re-evaluating my position.

The only thing that takes less effort than dismissing someone else’s ideas is agreeing with the masses.

Think about that for a moment.

How easy is it to tell someone they are wrong, dismiss what they say, poke obvious holes in their ideas with very little upfront thinking?

It takes almost no effort.

But it’s even easier to nod in agreement. It’s why mainstream news is so popular. People love to be told what to think.

I think it’s tough to develop this skill early in life. You’re impressionable and you think older people know something you don’t. It’s probably only been in the last 5-10 years that I’ve learned this lesson, and it’s probably been the most valuable tool I’ve developed.

But be careful. It’s not as easy as, “everyone thinks I’m wrong so I must be right!”. There are times when you can be too close or personally invested in something to see clearly, especially when you’re young. That person you’re dating that everyone says, or hints, is no good for you? They may just be on to something.

You get the idea.

Don’t Be An Ape

The last couple years have popularized financial speculation as entertainment for many people, largely, in my opinion, to being trapped at home due to COVID. And while that hasn’t been true for the last twelve months or so (being trapped at home), it seems we’re still weening ourselves off the speculative rush.

Along with speculation as a hobby came the culture of “apeing in” which is simply jumping into a position or bet with a large amount of money, usually more than is prudent. It reminds me a lot of the guy that sits down at the poker table and plays uber aggressively, bullying the table with a high frequency of all-in bets.

It works every time until the last time.

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The Glamorous Life of a Real Estate Investor

I haven’t been writing lately.

I haven’t been doing anything remotely close to my daily routinely lately.

I’ve been dealing with our current Detroit rehab and all the goings on with that 24/7. And this isn’t your typical “my contractors screwed up” or “we’re running behind” or some other small hiccup.

This is more like “some squatters next door decided to break into my house and start stealing stuff at night” type crap. It’s a long story, and it likely doesn’t all need to be written out but I slept in our rehab Sunday and Monday night.

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Essentialism and a Better Self

I like trends. In fact I’ve started largely focusing my writing on this blog around that entire idea so I can help think through the major trends I see in the world around me. Whether that’s technology, narratives pushed on us by media or society in general, markets and investing, etc.

But the most important trend we should all be paying attention to is ourselves and whether we’re on a trend of becoming better people. It’s always something that’s been in the back of my mind, and I’ve been putting in a lot of work lately to bring it to the front.

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Mayor in Morningside

I attended the monthly Morningside community meeting last night. It’s the first in-person one I’ve been to.

Detroit’s Mayor, Mike Duggan, showed up to listen to and address concerns from the community. I was surprised he made the time, but apparently he tries to make most of the community meetings throughout the city. Impressive.

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The Verdict (aka Appraisal) is in

The appraisal for The Mansion came in yesterday. This one was a nail biter, mostly because we had so much on the line. The final number is $240,000.

If I’m being reasonable about it, I’m quite happy. But I can’t help feeling a bit underwhelmed. I know that if we were to list the home for sale we’d be shooting for about $300,000. But we aren’t, and the sold comps aren’t as strong as some of the pending and active ones.

The appraiser was awesome. I’m not blaming him. But there’s only so much he can do with the existing data, and he did his best I’m sure.

Our goal with these homes is to get all of our money out once we refinance. I haven’t tallied all the numbers and costs yet, but it’s going to be close. For now I’m just focused on getting our tenant moved in and closing the refi.

It Would Have Been 37

Happy birthday, Rach. Wherever you are I hope you’re well and smiling.

I don’t talk with Caleb and the girls much, but they did make it for a short visit last month. They stayed the night and had fun playing with the boys. It may have been a bit too much boy energy for them, but we found balance.

Out of nowhere Ryder was asking on Friday if he could play with Cher and Lina. We told him they’re in Pennsylvania and he responded with, “Can we go to Pennsylvania?”. Cute.

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The 10x Path of Least Resistance

I was chatting with my friend Paul the other day, trying to drive home a point. We have a lot of back-and-forth discussions because we see just about everything differently. Our friendship works though because we’re both open minded enough to consider one another’s opinion.

I digress.

Something I’ve been getting him to come around on over the last two years is Detroit’s comeback. I dabble in angel investing which is a fancy term for saying I kiss small chunks of money goodbye into small private companies. Every couple months I receive an update from these companies that details their growth and progress.

I was reading one the other day, and their last bullet point said,

“We’ve received a $20M commitment from a private equity growth fund.”

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Appraisal Day for The Mansion

We’re finally here. Barely.

It’s appraisal day for The Mansion and while the house isn’t perfect yet, it’s as close as it’s going to get for now. After all, perfect is the enemy of all progress.

Our contractor stopped by this morning to grab the refrigerator and get it into place. There are a couple vanities that need to be installed, some hardware on the exterior door, exterior paint touchups, etc. Nothing like last minute!

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