I frequently talk about herd mentality.
We want to take notice when everyone is thinking, saying, doing the same thing because there’s outsized potential value unlocks to doing the opposite.
The same can be applied to things that seem incredibly obvious. Often times they don’t play out the way the masses expect. Here is a perfect example I’ve been keeping my eye on lately, a symmetrical triangle that’s formed in Ethereum:
I had been watching this develop for awhile, and I thought I was on to something.
Then I noticed others take note of it. Then I noticed what seemed like EVERYONE take note of it. Then it seemed like the only thing people were watching.
That set off alarm bells.
The assumption with a pattern like this is that, once it breaks one way or another, price will trend in that direction for a good while. Obviously, bulls were rejoicing when it broke higher out of this pattern.
But I’m not so sure. It just seems too easy. I would not be surprised if we see a whipsaw back in the opposite direction (lower here) to throw the masses for a complete loop.